Published June 1, 2022
Respected political analyst David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report created a stir last week when he projected Republicans would gain between 20 to 35 House seats in the midterms. If history is any guide, that number will almost surely increase by Election Day.
Political analysts characterize elections where one party makes outsize gains as “waves.” The metaphor is apt: Political currents develop well before elections. They gather strength as the big day approaches and then crash ashore with great power, destroying whatever vulnerable seats the opposing party holds in its wake.
Henry Olsen is a Washington Post columnist and a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.