The GOP midterm wave is set — and Democrats can’t do anything about it

Published June 1, 2022

Washington Post

Respected political analyst David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report created a stir last week when he projected Republicans would gain between 20 to 35 House seats in the midterms. If history is any guide, that number will almost surely increase by Election Day.

Political analysts characterize elections where one party makes outsize gains as “waves.” The metaphor is apt: Political currents develop well before elections. They gather strength as the big day approaches and then crash ashore with great power, destroying whatever vulnerable seats the opposing party holds in its wake.

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Henry Olsen is a Washington Post columnist and a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.

Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, studies and provides commentary on American politics. His work focuses on how America’s political order is being upended by populist challenges, from the left and the right. He also studies populism’s impact in other democracies in the developed world.

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