Published August 19, 2022
There’s a growing belief, based on state polling and a perception that Republicans have nominated an unusually poor slate of candidates in swing states, that Democratic Senate candidates can significantly outrun President Biden’s feeble job approval ratings and thereby keep control of the chamber. It’s not impossible, but the bulk of polling evidence from the last four cycles shows that’s it’s very unlikely.
It’s true that polls currently show Democrats ahead in many swing or Republican-leaning states. In fact, polling averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight show Democratic candidates tied or ahead in every state that is considered up for grabs this year.
Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, studies and provides commentary on American politics. His work focuses on how America’s political order is being upended by populist challenges, from the left and the right. He also studies populism’s impact in other democracies in the developed world.