Published July 14, 2026
Marine Le Pen’s decision to enter the 2027 presidential race following a court ruling removing her ban on running has shaken up the race. Polls suggest she starts in a strong position to finally capture the post she has been running for since 2012. A week I recently spent in France, though, reminded me of the challenge she faces that historically has eluded her: Convincing the comfortable bourgeoisie to prefer her over a candidate from the Macronist camp in the second round.
It’s not surprising that Le Pen immediately launched her candidacy following the appellate court’s reduction of her sentence that permits her to run. With the rise of her young deputy, Jordan Bardella, she surely knew that 2027 would be her last chance to capture the Élysée Palace before Bardella replaced her as her party’s favourite. Bardella, knowing the future is his, graciously stepped aside in favour of Le Pen and is expected to serve as her prime minister should she win and their National Rally (RN) party wins subsequent parliamentary elections.
That decision, while expected, disappoints some recent converts to RN’s cause because Bardella is believed to be less wedded to state intervention in the economy than Le Pen. While Bardella and others within RN who share his views would still wield influence in the event the populist party takes power, Le Pen’s prestige and political skill as president would likely place limits on their ability to steer RN closer to the economic mainstream.
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Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, is a globally recognized expert on American elections and policy as well as global populism.
