Published July 29, 2026
A big part of the fun of following politics (yes, I promise, it can be fun!) is the prognosticating, so let’s do that this week: Who’s ahead in Tuesday’s hard-fought Senate Democratic primary in Michigan, the next big showdown in the fight for control of the Democratic Party? The data are not conclusive, but they point in a clear direction — toward progressive Abdul El-Sayed.
Start with the polling. El-Sayed leads Rep. Haley Stevens in most of the available polling taken since state Sen. Mallory McMorrow dropped out of the race in early July. Two polls were taken by groups supporting El-Sayed and have him ahead by 13 to 16 percentage points. Ominously for Stevens, both indicate that El-Sayed is viewed much more favorably by Democratic voters than she is. Another poll showing El-Sayed comfortably ahead was released by a Democratic group Wednesday morning.
A fourth poll, taken for the Detroit News and WDIV by the Glengariff Group, showed Stevens up by seven points. That was an independent poll, which ought to hearten the Stevens camp. Except it also found that voters view El-Sayed more favorably than Stevens, and favorable opinions are a lot easier to convert into actual votes than negative ones are. And then there’s a dog that hasn’t barked: It’s notable that no group supporting Stevens has released polling to counter the results from the two pro-El-Sayed surveys. One assumes that’s because it doesn’t exist.
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Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, is a globally recognized expert on American elections and policy as well as global populism.
