Published September 9, 2026
Labor Day traditionally marks the start of the real campaign. With a host of races to track this year, which ones are most likely to be indicative of the outcome? Here’s my list.
For Democrats, winning control of the Senate would be like drawing an inside straight in poker. Four seats on the ballot appear vulnerable to flipping based on prior election patterns: Maine and North Carolina are Republican-held, while Georgia and Michigan are Democratic. To get a majority, Democrats must win all of them and win two of four Republican seats that President Donald Trump won by at least 11 points in 2024: Ohio, Iowa, Texas and Alaska. That’s a tall order.
To gauge Democratic takeover chances, I’m watching two races in particular: Michigan and Alaska. Michigan is a purple state that leans slightly Democratic, and Republicans have not won a Senate race there since 1994. But this cycle’s Democratic nominee, Abdul El-Sayed, may be too progressive for the state’s normally moderate swing voters. Michigan will be a test of whether El-Sayed’s unconventional profile outweighs the year’s strong Democratic lean.
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Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, is a globally recognized expert on American elections and policy as well as global populism.
