World Magazine Archives - Ethics & Public Policy Center
While it’s too early to make any strong predictions, an early glance at the 2020 Senate map suggests continued Republican control is the likeliest outcome.
If President Trump and Republicans want to win the election, they must improve their level of support among the weakly churched segments of America.
Many political pundits claim that Democratic enthusiasm will be the key to this year’s midterm elections. But the real effect of that enthusiasm might be found elsewhere.
A U.S. House Forecaster’s Guide
Four types of districts can help us predict the outcome of the midterms.
U.S. Senate races in Texas, New Mexico, and New Jersey could become unexpectedly close in the fall.
A Trio of Bellwethers
If you want to get a quick idea about the outcome of the fall midterms, go to Miami, Minneapolis, and Philadelphia. Together these areas include 13 in-play House seats and contain concentrations of the types of voters up for grabs in other places.
Very few Democratic Senate incumbents in Trump-carried states should feel safe despite their early poll advantages. Most will have to fight hard against the pull of their states’ Republican tendencies.
Eyes on the Primaries
The real campaign season is kicking off now, and what happens in the spring and summer often determines who wins in the fall.
Sights on the Senate
Both polling and historical analysis suggest Republicans could gain seats in the Senate in the 2018 midterm elections even as the party generally suffers a downturn.