polling Archives - Ethics & Public Policy Center

Donald Trump May Not Have Hurt the GOP as Much as Some Might Think

Common wisdom holds that former president Donald Trump badly hurt the Republican Party. A recent analysis of exit poll data by Trump’s campaign pollsters, however, shows he might have actually helped it.

New Poll: There Is No Singular Trump Voter

Despite how it is often portrayed in the media, Trump’s coalition is ideologically and demographically diverse.

New Data Shows Both a Hopeful and Worrying Portrait of Race in America

Realizing Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.’s dream has been much more difficult than most Americans imagined. The realities of racial progress and discrimination co-exist today.

The Polling Industry Can’t Sweep Its Failure Under the Rug

Political prognostication is an art as well as a science. Pollsters and analysts clearly leaned too much in favor of purported science this time around.

The Coming Biden Landslide

A clear electoral majority wants to get rid of Trump. Biden just has to convince them he’s safe.

Sorry, Republicans. The Polls Really Are That Bad.

Some Republicans say polls are undercounting GOP voters, while others cite 2016 as evidence that the polls are just wrong. Sadly, neither explanation holds water.

This Is Trump’s Last Chance, and He Probably Doesn’t Even Know It

President Trump’s precipitous drop in the polls is due to his mishandling of the two crises that define 2020: the novel coronavirus and the killing of George Floyd. The recent surge in coronavirus cases presents him with his last — and probably only — chance to reverse that decline.

Does Trump Have a Secret Stash of Voters?

The Trump campaign can reasonably expect that independent voters who approve of his job performance will eventually come around to voting to reelect the president.

Trump’s Approval Rating Has Already Recovered From Its Impeachment Slump

President Trump’s job approval rating has regained all the ground lost after his telephone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky came to light and now stands close to a three-year high. This should worry Democrats.

Trump Is Down, but Far from Out

While head-to-head polls are interesting and, in some cases, provide important clues, history provides a clearer guide to whether a president gets reelected — specifically regarding job approval ratings.