midterm Archives - Page 2 of 3 - Ethics & Public Policy Center
Some Election Implications
In Washington, as at the state level, a period of significant Republican dominance is ebbing some now without having achieved much that is likely to endure.
Democrats Need to Win Back the Obama-Trump Voter. Will They Succeed?
Six million people who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 switched parties to back Donald Trump in 2016. Can the Democrats win them back?
Election Memo: The RINOs Will Take Their Revenge
On Election Day, the new Democrat–RINO alliance will retake the House, sweep the GOP out of governor’s mansions in most purple states, and end the careers of hundreds of suburban state legislators. In the Senate, it will most likely hold Republicans to a one- or two-seat gain despite an incredibly favorable map — and may even win the Democrats a seat.
Blue Wave, or Breaking Red?
The consensus view regarding the likely outcome for the midterms is that Democrats regain control of the House, and Republicans add seats in the Senate. But some Trump backers, perhaps those who are not loyal, rock-red Republicans, still have time to make up their minds. How they vote will likely determine whether November 6 results in a blue wave or another surprising election night.
Four ‘What Ifs’ for the Midterms
The presence of known unknowns is one reason why election forecasting will never be a science despite the ongoing efforts to create elaborate predictive models. Models can be very helpful, but they are only as good as the assumptions built into them.
Many political pundits claim that Democratic enthusiasm will be the key to this year’s midterm elections. But the real effect of that enthusiasm might be found elsewhere.
Blue Wave, Red Tide, or Something in Between?
Midterm polling data suggest a mild blue wave in the House but little likelihood of a Democratic tsunami that could also flip the Senate.
A U.S. House Forecaster’s Guide
Four types of districts can help us predict the outcome of the midterms.
U.S. Senate races in Texas, New Mexico, and New Jersey could become unexpectedly close in the fall.
Don’t Overlook the State Elections
Thirty-seven states will elect governors this fall. If the negative trends apparent at the federal level hit Republicans here, too, the repercussions could be felt in the party for years.