midterm Archives - Ethics & Public Policy Center

Yet It Does Fly

If the midterm election were a referendum on President Trump, it is far from easy to tell what its verdict was.

Target 2020: the Independent Male Voter

Suburban men fled the GOP in the midterms, and they will likely determine the next presidential election.

A Bad Beat for Republicans—But Not Fraud

Plenty of Republicans and Trump fans are crying foul at the number of congressional seats that have moved towards the Democrats since Election Day. I understand why people are upset—but there’s no hanky panky afoot. Our election system is broken, but it is not saturated with fraud.

The Blue Wall

Donald Trump is president because he broke the “blue wall” in the Rust Belt. But Democrats performed very well in most of those states in the midterms, raising expectations that they can retake the region and thereby deny Trump reelection. And a close read of the returns gives reason for hope and concern on both sides.

Arizona Illustrates the RINO Revenge

Across the nation, moderate college-educated independents who had frequently backed Republicans in prior elections switched sides. We can see this trend both in the Arizona exit polls and the results reported to date.

What Did the Midterms Reveal? A Divided America

The U.S. is split into two separate nations, with two different election verdicts – and positive news for Trump supporters.

The Midterm Confidence Spiral

The results of the midterms were hardly signs of a coming political revolution, and they don’t even put this election on the level of the 2010 recoil from the Obama Administration’s first two years. But within the important swing block of suburban voters, which both parties need to attract if they are to build and sustain durable coalitions, the Democrats did significantly better than they first appeared to on election night.

Who Votes Republican?

Some of the data about this year’s crop of voters is similar to what we’ve seen in past contests, but there are some trends that should give Republicans and Democrats alike cause for reflection.

How the GOP Might Win in 2020

The GOP’s massive midterm losses in traditionally Republican suburbs have set it irretrievably on a new path. Either it re-creates a William McKinley-style coalition based on the working-class voter or it dies.

The 2018 Midterms Told a Tale of Two Weak Parties

The peculiar mixed result of Tuesday’s midterms should help us see the distinct and troubling character of our politics now: It is the weakness of all sides, and the strength of none, that shapes this moment.