John Mueller


Don’t Make America Great Britain

Don­ald Trump promised to “make Amer­ica great again,” but he might make Amer­ica Great Britain. To re-in­dus­tri­al­ize the U.S. econ­omy, Pres­i­dent Trump must avoid the mis­take that de-in­dus­tri­al­ized Britain: namely, he must end the dol­lar’s role as the world’s chief re­serve cur­rency.

Economics and Demography

Why has the birth rate fallen in nearly every country? And why has discussion of the family been shifting from West to East? A new prototype “Social Futuring Index” might offer some answers.

The Cause and Mechanisms of American De-Industrialization

An effective solution to the decline of American manufacturing highlighted in the new book Advanced Manufacturing, it seems, requires either a change of mind by President Trump, or a different president.

Jeff Bell was George Bailey

To those who knew him well, Jeffrey L. Bell was a real-life George Bailey: an accomplished and decent man who shaped important events by helping others achieve their own greatness, mostly without recognition himself.

The Trump Tax Reform Won’t Match the Reagan Ones

Some hard figures help explain why the Reagan administration tax reforms were enacted with the support of so-called “Reagan Democrats” in Congress, while not a single Democrat voted for the 2017 tax reform.

A Brief Demographic Tour of the World

The good news is that the rate of legal abortion has fallen by nearly half from its peak; the bad news is that this still makes the difference between a declining and growing population, both for the United States and for the whole world.

Solving the Triffin Dilemma

There have always been only three alternative solutions to the Triffin Dilemma–the inherent conflict of a reserve-currency country’s economic policy with international monetary order—and only one has ever worked in the real world.

There’s Plenty of Hope for Tax Reform

Elbows are flying, and the situation seems ‘ominous.’ It’s beginning to look a lot like 1986.

Trump’s Real Trade Problem Is Money

Protectionism won’t cure the import-export imbalance. The solution lies in monetary policy.

Monetary Reform or Trade War

The official reserve-currency system causes the domestic price level to rise in the reserve-currency country, relative to other countries, even when exchange rates remain (temporarily) fixed–a competitive disadvantage that tariffs can only worsen, and only proper monetary reform can fix.