Henry Olsen

Red-State Challenge

Very few Democratic Senate incumbents in Trump-carried states should feel safe despite their early poll advantages. Most will have to fight hard against the pull of their states’ Republican tendencies.

NeverTrump Bait and Switch: They Hate the Ideas, Not the Man

NeverTrump Republicans face a time for choosing. The data clearly show that a return to the Republican Party and conservatism of 2000 is not possible, either within the GOP itself or in the nation at large.

The NeverTrump Dilemma

NeverTrump Republicans must confront the fact that on issue after issue they are in the minority within their own party.

Ohio Tea Leaves

Forecasts for the upcoming midterm elections rely primarily on the generic congressional ballot poll, but an August special election for a House seat in Ohio might tell us more about the eventual outcome.

Unforced Errors Drag Down the Greatness Agenda

The polls in President Trump’s case are clear: some of the aggressive tactics that thrill his supporters alienate those whom he could persuade.

A Plan for Fiscal Hawks

Republicans who want spending restraint probably represent only about 10 to 15 percent of the total Republican-voting electorate, but without their support Republicans cannot win. That gives the fiscal-restraint advocates a strong hand to play, if they play it correctly.

Gaslighting Themselves: Why Trump Critics Miss the Obvious

It’s not just that President Trump’s opponents find him odious at best and dangerous at worst: it’s that they have little to no sense of why people might disagree with them and why the president’s ultimate demise is far from the smug certainty they assume it is.

Republicans’ Millennial Problem Isn’t What You Think

Republicans who want to modernize their party rightly point to the GOP’s weakness among millennials as a target area for improvement. But the prescription will only work if the diagnosis is correct.

The Trump Coalition and the Electoral College

Demographic change means that Republicans and non-progressives must act now if they do not want to cede political control to the Left.

Eyes on the Primaries

The real campaign season is kicking off now, and what happens in the spring and summer often determines who wins in the fall.