Published June 10, 2020
Conventional analysis would say that Trump’s goose is probably cooked. Presidents who polled this poorly less than five months before Election Day have always lost. The continuing furor over George Floyd’s killing is not helping him, and the economy remains mired in a deep recession despite the comparatively fabulous May jobs report. Biden remains off the stump, preventing him from committing the unforced errors for which the former vice president is famous. The lingering effects of the coronavirus pandemic is also impeding Trump’s ability to campaign. Put all of the factors together, and Biden looks like a shoo-in.
That, however, would be too hasty.
Henry Olsen is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.