The Democrat House Majority is Probably Cooked

Published October 18, 2022

The Washington Post

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has repeatedly said her party can maintain control of the House in the midterms. But for that to happen, Democrats would need to win a significant number of Republican-held seats in districts that President Biden carried in 2020. That’s highly unlikely.

Republicans currently hold 14 seats in districts that Biden won. Winning back some of these is crucial to Democratic hopes, as they hold nine districts that Trump won and are fighting uphill battles to keep them. GOP mapmakers also drew five Democrats into heavily GOP seats, depriving them of any realistic chance of reelection. (Democrats, by contrast, are only likely to pick up one GOP seat through similar gerrymandering shenanigans.) Pelosi’s party thus needs to win at least as many Biden-GOP seats back as it loses in Trump-Democrat areas to have a prayer of holding its slim five-seat majority.

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Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, studies and provides commentary on American politics. His work focuses on how America’s political order is being upended by populist challenges, from the left and the right. He also studies populism’s impact in other democracies in the developed world.

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