Published June 30, 2021
National polls have thus far provided comforting news for Democrats. A recent set of polls taken in swing states and congressional districts, however, paint a much less rosy picture.
The polls show that President Biden and Democrats are starting the summer on much rockier ground in key states and seats than many suspect. Conducted by Future Majority, a Democratic advocacy group, they assess Biden’s job approval and voter preferences on a host of issues in the 37 congressional districts where the 2020 presidential election results fell within a five percentage point margin and in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona.
Democrats will probably be surprised to learn that Biden’s popularity is poor in key states and among independent voters. His approval rating exceeds his disapprovals in these places only on his handling of the pandemic. On every other issue tested — such as the economy and jobs, racial justice, and environmental and climate policy — more people disapprove of his performance than approve. His worst rating comes on his handling of the southern border with Mexico: roughly 60 percent of voters in Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania and the swing districts disapprove of Biden’s performance thus far.
Henry Olsen is a Washington Post columnist and a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.