Published October 12, 2022
Pundits have seized on close midterm polling suggesting that Democrats could conceivably retain at least one of their congressional majorities. But the behavior of the two parties points to a different conclusion: a Republican-leaning environment that’s slowly getting stronger.
Most media analysis starts and ends with the top-line polling results. Pundits look at things such as the generic congressional ballot, which measures which party a voter would hypothetically support for Congress. They also look at polls in individual races to get a clue on how candidates are faring in important contests.
Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, studies and provides commentary on American politics. His work focuses on how America’s political order is being upended by populist challenges, from the left and the right. He also studies populism’s impact in other democracies in the developed world.