Published July 28, 2020
It’s also important to note that the Republican share of the sample in these polls has not changed much since the days in late February or early March before the pandemic hit the United States. A breakdown of the data is available for that period for two of those five polls, Fox News and The Washington Post/ABC News. The share of Republicans did not change more than one point on average in either poll between then and now. Three other polls that are currently not in the RCP average — Emerson, the Wall Street Journal/NBC News and Monmouth — also have data available for pre-pandemic and current periods, and the share of Republicans in those samples has dropped by an average of one point in that period. Yet in each poll Biden has gained significantly against Trump. Again, partisan composition of the sample does not explain Trump’s fall.
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Henry Olsen is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.