Published October 21, 2024
Pundits and analysts are looking at head-to-head polling numbers to read the presidential race’s tea leaves.
But to understand where the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will end, rather than where it stands today, look at the candidates’ favorability numbers instead.
Historically, a presidential candidate’s favorability rating is highly correlated with his or her ultimate share of the vote. In 2016 and 2020, almost all those who told exit pollsters they had a favorable opinion of a candidate voted for that person.
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Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, studies and provides commentary on American politics. His work focuses on how America’s political order is being upended by populist challenges, from the left and the right. He also studies populism’s impact in other democracies in the developed world.