Henry Olsen

The U.S. is split into two separate nations, with two different election verdicts – and positive news for Trump supporters.

The GOP’s massive midterm losses in traditionally Republican suburbs have set it irretrievably on a new path. Either it re-creates a William McKinley-style coalition based on the working-class voter or it dies.

Six million people who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 switched parties to back Donald Trump in 2016. Can the Democrats win them back?

On Election Day, the new Democrat–RINO alliance will retake the House, sweep the GOP out of governor’s mansions in most purple states, and end the careers of hundreds of suburban state legislators. In the Senate, it will most likely hold Republicans to a one- or two-seat gain despite an incredibly favorable map — and may even win the Democrats a seat.

The consensus view regarding the likely outcome for the midterms is that Democrats regain control of the House, and Republicans add seats in the Senate. But some Trump backers, perhaps those who are not loyal, rock-red Republicans, still have time to make up their minds. How they vote will likely determine whether November 6 results in a blue wave or another surprising election night.

The presence of known unknowns is one reason why election forecasting will never be a science despite the ongoing efforts to create elaborate predictive models. Models can be very helpful, but they are only as good as the assumptions built into them.

Many political pundits claim that Democratic enthusiasm will be the key to this year’s midterm elections. But the real effect of that enthusiasm might be found elsewhere.

Midterm polling data suggest a mild blue wave in the House but little likelihood of a Democratic tsunami that could also flip the Senate.

A new path forward on immigration means crafting something that works for all Americans, the newcomer and the long-termer. While President Trump’s backers rightly contend that long-time Americans’ views are too frequently being discarded, Reihan Salam’s new book is good reminder that newcomers must also be incorporated into a Trumpist future if we are to avoid civil war.

Four types of districts can help us predict the outcome of the midterms.

Minnesota’s Amy Klobuchar, a soft-spoken, savvy senator, should be on the Democratic radar screen of presidential candidates.

Despite a roaring economy, Americans remain wary of the president and are as yet unwilling to join forces with his base. Bringing that union to fruition is the key political task President Trump faces in the next year and a half.