November 17, 2016 | American Enterprise Institute
On Thursday, November 10, EPPC Senior Fellow Henry Olsen took part in the American Enterprise Institute’s “Election Watch” panel to analyze the results and possible consequences of the 2016 election.
Here is AEI’s summary of the event:
Two days after Election Day, AEI’s election experts convened for a postelection analysis of the results and what to expect from the next administration and Congress.
AEI’s Karlyn Bowman noted that although the pollsters did not have a good night Tuesday, Election Watch panelist Henry Olsen of the Ethics & Public Policy Center was one of the few to predict the results. Mr. Olsen said Donald Trump won a majority of the Electoral College by tapping into what Americans have wanted from their elected leaders for years — respect and a voice — and by “bringing home Republican loyalists.” AEI’s Michael Barone explained the geographical dispersion of Trump’s support and said the historical significance of any possible party realignments is “an open question.”
Bipartisan Policy Center’s John Fortier described how Donald Trump improved the Republican margin in solid Republic states and in key states this election, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while Democrats improved their margin elsewhere, including Texas, Arizona, and California. These shifts, Fortier said, helped Republicans keep the Senate. AEI’s Norman J. Ornstein offered several scenarios for governing, noting that the differences in how the House, the Senate, and the presidency operate and in their agendas could pose problems to Republicans’ united government.
Ms. Bowman added that “the pollsters have a lot of soul-searching to do” and discussed key topline results from the exit polls. The panel concluded by noting that campaign fundamentals, including ground game and data analytics, do not outweigh the significance of candidates, enthusiasm, and this year, especially, a desire for a “change election.”
Click here to view more details at AEI’s website.