If you have seen pictures of Dubai's "Palm Island" you will begin to grasp how opulent some Middle Eastern countries are becoming, thanks in large part to record high oil prices. While John Edwards was wrong about there being "two Americas"-with one half roiling in wealth and the other half depressed in poverty-he wouldn't be too far off the mark in characterizing "two Middle Easts."
As the dollar continues its freefall , countries like the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrainsee their oil revenues skyrocketing. Half of the Middle East is modernizing, with some of the Gulf states taking more strident steps toward public secularization.
As the Gulf countries diversify and open up their economies to global markets , a more hopeful economic future looks to be in the cards - good news upon first glance. From our standpoint, however, such progress will require more careful diplomatic maneuvering beyond our reliance on economic sanctions. In a region where the political leaders are committed to catching up to the economic vitality of the developed world and the consumers are becoming more and more sophisticated (wanting what "we" have but within their own cultural and religious norms ), we must think more deeply about how to leverage this burgeoning market for our mutual interests while not giving them an open door to propagate repressive Islamic cultural norms that weaken the potential for modernization in the Western tradition.
The other half of the Middle East faces poverty because of autocracy and conflict. Iraq is a case in point, and its poverty was not a direct effect of the war. Radical Sunni and Shia clerics in Iraq propelled the violence, which has knee-capped American efforts to stabilize Iraq and its economy. One good sign for the forces of modernization and secularization in Iraq is that young Iraqis are increasingly disillusioned with radical Islam , blaming jihadist clerics for their misery. At the same time, however, the United States has spent much of its political capital and prestige on Iraq, and now holds little sway amongst a population craving indigenous leadership. Who will fill the vacuum? Only time will tell.
