Iran: Change in the Air?
The Gathering Storm, May 22, 2009
May 22, 2009
Iran has not left the front pages for the past week, and for good reason. Not only was the Islamic Republic the elephant in the room during President Obama's meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, but the country reportedly test launched a mid-range surface-to-surface missile at the same time that they were deciding upon those final four candidates competing in Iran's upcoming presidential elections. And just yesterday, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen told the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the consequences of "Irangetting a nuclear weapon [would be] calamitous for the region and for the world," thus necessitating the active cooperation of major international powersto prevent it.
To his credit, President Obama made clear on Monday the limits of his diplomatic patience, declaring this year's end as the final opportunity for Iran to demonstrate "a good-faith effort to resolve differences" in negotiations aimed at ending its nuclear program. What our President proposes to do should such an effort fail to materialize remains opaque.
Just two days after Obama's statement, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced the test-firing of a new advanced missile with a range of about 1,200 miles, far enough to strike Israel and southeastern Europe. The timing of this move cannot be dismissed, especially considering the incumbent's pending face-off with the three other candidates selected to compete for the Iranian presidency.
Campaigning has officially got under way in Iran's presidential elections, with Iran's clerically dominated vetting body (the Guardian Council) clearing four candidates to run. There were originally 475 people who registered. The remaining candidates are: current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mirhoussein Mousavi (former prime minister), Mahdi Karoubi (former parliament speaker), and Mohsen Rezaie (former head of the Revolutionary Guard).
The most serious challenge to Ahmadinejad's incumbency comes from Iran's reformist camp, represented by Mousavi and Karoubi. But with supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urging voters to shun "pro-West" candidates, state-run television running the debates and public opinion polls, and a generally apathetic public, there is little hope of change for Iran's political leadership.
